Guide
How PropPrizm Works
A practical walkthrough for finding sharp picks using the matchup projections and edge scanner.
1
The Two Tools
PropPrizm has two main views, and they work best together:
- Matchup Dashboard — statistical projections for each game. Shows you what the model expects from each pitcher and batter given the specific matchup, park, umpire, and weather conditions.
- Edge Scanner — real-time odds comparison. Finds props where sportsbooks are pricing outcomes differently from the model's projection, flagging potential value bets.
The workflow
Use the Matchup Dashboard to understand what's likely to happen → use the Edge Scanner to find props where the market is priced wrong relative to those expectations.
2
Reading the Matchup Dashboard
Select a game from the strip at the top to load its matchup card. The card is split into a pitcher panel and a batter table.
Pitcher Panel
The key numbers to focus on:
7.4Pred Ks
5.8Est IP
8.9Recent K/9
9.1Season K/9
- Pred Ks — the model's strikeout projection for this start. This is the number to compare against the sportsbook's K line.
- Est IP — estimated innings pitched. Lower IP = fewer total K opportunities regardless of K rate.
- Recent K/9 / Season K/9 — raw rate stats for context. A gap between recent and season rates signals momentum.
Adjustments Panel
Below the stats you'll see context factors that went into the projection. These are collapsible — click any header to expand:
- Park Factors — some parks suppress strikeouts (e.g., Coors Field) or inflate them. A SO factor below 1.0 drags the K projection down.
- Umpire — umpires with a tight zone generate more walks and contact; umpires with a wide zone favor strikeout pitchers.
- Weather — wind blowing in suppresses home runs; high humidity or cold air affects carry.
Batter Table
Each lineup slot shows the batter's 2026 stats and Statcast quality metrics. Key columns:
- xK / xHits / xHR — the model's per-plate-appearance projections for that batter against this specific pitcher.
- K% — current season strikeout rate. High K% batters boost pitcher K projections.
- xBA / xwOBA — Statcast expected metrics. xBA above actual AVG = batter is due for positive regression.
- Barrel% / HH% — barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Useful for evaluating HR and total bases props.
Tip — lineup confirmation matters
Projections improve significantly once lineups are posted (typically 1–3 hours before first pitch). Check back closer to game time for the most accurate numbers.
3
Using the Edge Scanner
The Edge Scanner pulls live odds from major sportsbooks and compares them against the model's implied probabilities. Props with meaningful gaps between the model and the market are flagged as edges.
What the columns mean
- Model — the model's implied probability that the prop hits (e.g., "62% chance pitcher goes over 5.5 Ks").
- Best EV% — expected value at the best available price across all books. Positive = the model sees value; negative = the book has the edge.
- Consensus — the market's implied probability, averaged across sharp books. This is the "market opinion."
- Book columns — individual sportsbook prices. Green = positive EV at that book vs the model.
How to read EV%
EV% tells you the theoretical long-run return per dollar wagered at that price:
- +8.4% — for every $100 bet, the model expects +$8.40 in value over time.
- -3.1% — the book has the edge; pass on this prop.
Generally look for props with +5% EV or higher as a starting threshold. Higher is better, but also rarer.
Filters
Use the filter bar at the top of the Edge Scanner to narrow results:
- Best Overall — shows only the highest-edge prop per player. Good for a quick daily shortlist.
- Strikeouts / Hits / HRs / Total Bases / HRR — filter by prop type to focus on what you're betting.
- Book filter — each book column is clickable. Use this to filter results to only show edges at the sportsbook you have access to — so you only see props you can actually bet.
The sweet spot
The best opportunities are props where: (1) the model projects a meaningful edge at your book, (2) the consensus across other books agrees the line is mispriced, and (3) the matchup dashboard confirms the underlying stats support it. When all three align — that's your strongest signal.
4
A Step-by-Step Pick Process
1
Open the Edge Scanner
Sort by Best EV%. Scan the top 10–15 props. Focus on edges of +5% or higher.
2
Validate with the Matchup Dashboard
For any pitcher K prop with strong EV, pull up that game. Does the matchup support it? Check the opposing lineup's K% — if it's high, that's confirmation. Check park SO factor and umpire tendency.
3
Check consensus agreement
Look at the Consensus column. If multiple books are pricing the prop similarly and all are below the model's implied probability, that's broader market confirmation. The more books that agree, the stronger the signal.
4
Find the best price at your book
The Edge Scanner shows prices across all books side by side. Focus on the column for your sportsbook — if that cell is green, the edge exists where you can act on it. Always take the best available price.
5
Wait for lineup confirmation
If the pitcher's lineup isn't posted yet, consider waiting. Projections sharpen considerably once the actual batting order is known. Avoid betting early on games where the opposing lineup is unknown.
5
Important Disclaimers
- PropPrizm provides statistical projections and analysis — not guaranteed outcomes. All sports betting involves risk.
- The model is strongest for pitcher strikeout props given the volume of historical data. Batter props (hits, HRs, total bases) have more variance.
- Always practice responsible bankroll management. We recommend treating each bet as a small, fixed percentage of your total bankroll regardless of perceived edge.
- PropPrizm is in beta. Projections will improve over the 2026 season as more data accumulates.
Questions? Reach us at propprizm@gmail.com