⚾ MLB prop model · beta

Three ways to bet props.
One of them actually works.

Most bettors guess. Sharper bettors shop the market. The best use a model that's right more often than the sportsbook is. PropPrizm gives you the third one.

Start for Free → See the Track Record

— Closer than sportsbook

— Graded picks

— Pending grading

The Problem

Where most prop bettors go wrong

There's a hierarchy. Most of the money loses at the bottom of it. A small percentage actually wins.

Tier 1 — Most Bettors

Blind Bets

Pick whoever's "due" or whoever's hot. No model. No price comparison. Trust your gut and a Twitter tout with 3 "locks of the day".

📉 Over the long run, the vig grinds you down

Tier 2 — Sharper Bettors

Line Shopping

Check multiple books for the best price. This is a real edge — different books have different lines. But you're still betting on what all the books already agree on.

↔ Better than blind, but no unique angle

Tier 3 — What PropPrizm Gives You

Model + Market Edge

A prop model that's right more often than the sportsbook consensus — combined with a scanner that finds where books are soft. You bet the mispricings the market missed.

🎯 Real edge you can actually measure

The Receipts

We log everything. Losses included.

Every prediction the model makes is logged and graded against the final box score. No curation, no screenshots — just the data.

—%

of the time, our pick is closer to the actual outcome than the sportsbook consensus

—Graded picks

—Model Brier

—Market Brier

Right more often than the market, at scale.

The model has been tested against thousands of live outcomes. On the Model Closer metric — which side of the bet lands closer to reality — we beat the sportsbook consensus more than half the time.

The sportsbook's Brier score (raw calibration) is tighter because they stay close to 50/50 on most props. Safe, but safe doesn't make money. We make bolder calls, and we're right about them more often than the books are.

See every graded pick →

What You Get

Built for bettors who want data, not lock picks

Three tools working together. Every prediction backed by logged, public results.

Edge Scanner

Ranks every prop by edge — model probability minus the best book price. Shows you where DK, FD, MGM, Kalshi, and Novig disagree with our model in real time. Sorted by biggest mispricing first.

Open Edge Scanner →

Matchup Dashboard

Pitcher vs lineup breakdowns. Pitch arsenal, K% vs handedness, park factor, umpire strike zone, weather, rest days. Every factor the model considers, shown transparently.

See a matchup →

Track Record

Every prop prediction the model makes, logged and graded after the game. Model vs Market Brier scores, per-prop breakdown, recent picks table with filters. Losses shown equally.

View track record →

Pricing

Simple. One tier. No upsell.

One plan gets you everything. Cancel anytime from your account settings.

Free

$0 / forever

One matchup card preview
Access to blog + track record
Edge Scanner
Full matchup dashboard
Player profiles + game logs
Historical calibration data

Try the preview

EVERYTHING

Pro

$19.99 / month

Full Edge Scanner across all books
All matchup dashboards
Pitcher + batter profile pages
Historical game logs
Live Kalshi + Novig prices
Cancel anytime, no commitment

Get Pro →

Questions

Honest answers

Why should I trust this model? ▶

Every prediction the model makes is logged publicly and graded after the game — win or lose. You can see the full track record at /track-record, including losses. No cherry-picking, no curated wins. If the numbers stop beating the market, you'll see that too.

Isn't the sportsbook market efficient? ▶

Mostly, yes. But MLB props are less efficient than main-market lines because they carry lower liquidity. The model finds specific situations — certain pitchers, parks, weather combos — where the market hasn't priced everything in. That's where the edge lives. You don't need to beat every line; you need to find the mispriced ones.

What sports do you cover? ▶

MLB only right now, and we're still in beta. We'd rather do one sport well than five sports poorly. NFL and NBA may come later, but only after MLB calibration is rock-solid.

What if I'm new to prop betting? ▶

Start with the blog — posts on EV, Kalshi, park factors, and reading prop lines. Then use the Edge Scanner and sort by the biggest positive edges on strikeout props (our strongest category). Bet small while you learn the tool.

How often is the data updated? ▶

Model predictions refresh multiple times per day as lineups and weather are confirmed. Odds update in real time from the sportsbook APIs. Track record re-grades after each game ends.

Can I cancel anytime? ▶

Yes — cancel from your account settings any time. No long-term commitment, no hidden fees. If you cancel mid-month, you keep access until the end of the billing period.

Three ways to bet props.One of them actually works.