Today's Projections Today's Slate Players Track Record Blog How It Works Sign In Open App
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⚾ MLB player research

Know every hitter and pitcher
before first pitch.

Statcast-backed projections, pitch-arsenal matchups, vs-hand splits, and recent form — for every player on tonight's slate, updated daily as lineups and weather lock in.

Explore today's slate → See projection accuracy
Projections graded
Pending grading
daily Refreshed

Box scores tell you what happened. We tell you what's likely next.

There's a ladder of how much you actually know walking into a game. Most fans sit at the bottom of it.

Level 1 — Most Fans

Gut + Recency

"He's been hot lately." "That pitcher's nasty." No splits, no matchup detail — just a vibe off the last box score you happened to see.

📉 You're reacting to noise, not signal
Level 2 — Stat Readers

Raw Numbers

Pull up season AVG, K%, maybe an xwOBA. Real information — but it's backward-looking and doesn't account for tonight's specific pitcher, park, or weather.

↔ Better, but it's last month's data
Level 3 — What PropPrizm Gives You

Forward Projections

A projection for this exact matchup — the batter's profile vs this pitcher's arsenal, in this park, this weather, off recent form. What's actually likely to happen tonight.

🎯 The full picture, before first pitch

Every projection is graded. Misses included.

We don't just publish a number and move on. Every projection the model makes is logged and graded against the final box score — so you can see how accurate it actually is.

projections logged and graded against real box scores — no curation, no cherry-picked screenshots
Graded
Calibration (Brier)
MLBCoverage

Accountable by default.

The model has been tested against thousands of live outcomes — pitcher strikeouts, hits, total bases, home runs, and more, all graded after the final out.

Most projection sites show you a number with no way to check it. We log every one and grade it publicly, so the accuracy is yours to verify — not ours to claim.

See the full track record →

Everything you need to read a matchup

Three tools working together. Every projection backed by logged, public results.

Matchup Dashboard

Pitcher vs lineup breakdowns. Pitch arsenal, K% vs handedness, park factor, umpire strike zone, weather, rest days — every factor the model weighs, shown transparently.

See today's matchups →

Player Profiles

A page for every hitter and pitcher — projections, vs-hand splits, pitch-arsenal matchups, Statcast quality-of-contact, and recent game logs. The full picture on any player in one place.

Browse players →

Track Record

Every projection the model makes, logged and graded after the game against the final box score. Calibration by prop type, recent results with filters, misses shown right alongside the hits.

View track record →

Free to use. All of it.

Every projection, matchup, player profile, and the full track record — no paywall, no account required. Just open it.

Open today's slate →

Honest answers

How accurate are the projections?
Every projection is logged publicly and graded after the game against the final box score — hits and misses alike. You can see the full record at /track-record. No cherry-picking, no curated screenshots. If the model gets cold, you'll see that too.
What makes this different from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs?
Those are excellent for what *already* happened. PropPrizm is forward-looking: it takes a player's profile and projects this specific matchup — the batter vs this pitcher's arsenal, in this park, this weather, off recent form — into an expected line for tonight. Raw stats are an input; the projection is the output.
What sports do you cover?
MLB only right now. We'd rather do one sport well than five poorly. Other sports may come later, but only once MLB is rock-solid.
How do I get started?
Just open today's slate — no account needed. Pick a game to see the matchup breakdown, or search any player for their full profile. The blog has deeper reads on park factors, pitch arsenals, and how the projections are built.
How often is the data updated?
Projections refresh multiple times per day as lineups and weather are confirmed. The track record re-grades after each game ends.
Is it really free?
Yes — every projection, matchup, player profile, and the full track record, no paywall and no account required. Just open it.

See tonight's slate the way the model does.

Projections, matchups, and player profiles for every game — free, no account required.

Explore today's slate →