Today's MLB Projections

10 games on the slate. Starting-pitcher strikeout projections and the top hitter projections, updated through the day as lineups and weather lock in. Tap any player for the full breakdown.

Top Hitter Projections

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1Yordan AlvarezHouston Astros77% hit · 14% HR · 64% HRR 2Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgers74% hit · 17% HR · 61% HRR 3Jeremy PeñaHouston Astros73% hit · 8% HR · 58% HRR 4Drake BaldwinAtlanta Braves73% hit · 14% HR · 59% HRR 5Alec BurlesonSt. Louis Cardinals73% hit · 8% HR · 55% HRR 6Gabriel MorenoArizona Diamondbacks72% hit · 8% HR · 55% HRR 7Jake McCarthyColorado Rockies72% hit · 7% HR · 56% HRR 8Pete AlonsoBaltimore Orioles72% hit · 13% HR · 58% HRR 9Ryan JeffersMinnesota Twins71% hit · 11% HR · 58% HRR 10Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays71% hit · 10% HR · 54% HRR 11Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays70% hit · 15% HR · 55% HRR 12Willson ContrerasBoston Red Sox70% hit · 13% HR · 55% HRR 13Andy PagesLos Angeles Dodgers70% hit · 13% HR · 55% HRR 14Michael Harris IIAtlanta Braves69% hit · 12% HR · 52% HRR 15Jung Hoo LeeSan Francisco Giants69% hit · 4% HR · 49% HRR 16Freddie FreemanLos Angeles Dodgers69% hit · 11% HR · 50% HRR 17Jordan WalkerSt. Louis Cardinals69% hit · 10% HR · 56% HRR 18Jonathan ArandaTampa Bay Rays69% hit · 11% HR · 52% HRR 19JJ WetherholtSt. Louis Cardinals69% hit · 7% HR · 51% HRR 20Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Phillies69% hit · 9% HR · 53% HRR 21Geraldo PerdomoArizona Diamondbacks68% hit · 5% HR · 47% HRR 22Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Toronto Blue Jays68% hit · 7% HR · 49% HRR 23Ronald Acuña Jr.Atlanta Braves68% hit · 11% HR · 51% HRR 24TJ RumfieldColorado Rockies68% hit · 6% HR · 48% HRR 25Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockies68% hit · 16% HR · 57% HRR 26Mike TroutLos Angeles Angels68% hit · 14% HR · 52% HRR 27Ketel MarteArizona Diamondbacks68% hit · 8% HR · 50% HRR 28Cole CarriggColorado Rockies68% hit · 6% HR · 55% HRR 29Bryce EldridgeSan Francisco Giants68% hit · 8% HR · 47% HRR 30Jac CaglianoneKansas City Royals68% hit · 14% HR · 47% HRR 31A.J. EwingNew York Mets68% hit · 8% HR · 46% HRR 32Ceddanne RafaelaBoston Red Sox68% hit · 9% HR · 51% HRR 33Iván HerreraSt. Louis Cardinals68% hit · 6% HR · 50% HRR 34Matt OlsonAtlanta Braves67% hit · 16% HR · 56% HRR 35Austin MartinMinnesota Twins67% hit · 4% HR · 41% HRR 36Brice TurangMilwaukee Brewers67% hit · 8% HR · 55% HRR 37Trea TurnerPhiladelphia Phillies67% hit · 7% HR · 50% HRR 38Corbin CarrollArizona Diamondbacks67% hit · 8% HR · 51% HRR 39Jackson ChourioMilwaukee Brewers67% hit · 14% HR · 54% HRR 40Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers66% hit · 11% HR · 53% HRR 41Josh BellMinnesota Twins66% hit · 8% HR · 50% HRR 42Wilyer AbreuBoston Red Sox65% hit · 12% HR · 50% HRR 43Ryan ViladeTampa Bay Rays65% hit · 10% HR · 42% HRR 44Osleivis BasabeSan Francisco Giants64% hit · 10% HR · 51% HRR 45Mookie BettsLos Angeles Dodgers64% hit · 11% HR · 45% HRR 46Wyatt LangfordTexas Rangers63% hit · 12% HR · 49% HRR 47Salvador PerezKansas City Royals63% hit · 12% HR · 42% HRR 48Teoscar HernándezLos Angeles Dodgers63% hit · 11% HR · 45% HRR 49Manny MachadoSan Diego Padres63% hit · 13% HR · 48% HRR 50Ty FranceSan Diego Padres63% hit · 12% HR · 44% HRR 51Tyler SoderstromAthletics62% hit · 11% HR · 47% HRR 52Zach NetoLos Angeles Angels61% hit · 12% HR · 48% HRR 53Enrique HernándezLos Angeles Dodgers60% hit · 11% HR · 32% HRR 54Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Phillies59% hit · 13% HR · 47% HRR 55Jake BurgerTexas Rangers58% hit · 11% HR · 42% HRR 56Jose SiriLos Angeles Angels57% hit · 11% HR · 33% HRR 57Kazuma OkamotoToronto Blue Jays56% hit · 11% HR · 43% HRR

Projections are model estimates from pitch-arsenal matchups, splits, park, weather, and recent form — graded against the box score on the track record. Hitter projections fill in once lineups are official. For pitchers, the o line is the standard strikeout line (a plain o is the verified Kalshi line, proj o is the model's projected line when Kalshi has no market) and % o is the model's chance the over hits. Hitter percentages are the model's chance of 1+ hit, 1+ HR, and 2+ hits+runs+RBI.

Starting Pitcher — Strikeout Projections

Top Hitter Projections